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Getting Water from the Mississippi River to the Lower Colorado River Basin PART 2 of 2

As we learned in "Water Scarcity in the Lower Colorado River Basin" (https://express.adobe.com/page/JlGOIyWAR4XdM/), a critical source of water for the southwest US is in serious peril. In response to failed efforts by federal and state agencies to manage this challenge, there have been renewed calls to either reduce water consumption in the Basin or to replenish major western water reservoirs by importing water from other sources. Based on the $1.2 BILLION invested by the State of Arizona in the 2022 Water Infrastructure Finance Authority (WIFA) legislation, a substantial investment has been made to augment the supply of water to Arizona. So, how would this work?

Importing Water to Augment the Supply of Water in the Lower Colorado River Basin

People have recommended a number of ways to increase the supply of fresh water to the Colorado River Basin (CRB). These range from tried-and-true technologies such as desalination to less practical ideas such as towing glaciers south to harvest fresh water.

Desalination

Desalination of Pacific Ocean water is one approach that's received consideration. This is definitely a possibility - as we know from many nations in the Middle East and Eastern Africa who rely on desalination to meet their need for fresh water. However, it's a fairly expensive prospect that generates a residual that requires disposal. Also, any focus on desalination would concentrate freshwater production in one CRB state.

The Great Lakes

People have proposed an aqueduct to move water from Lake Superior to the CRB. Proponents of this plan recommend the construction of a 900-mile pipeline from Lake Superior to the Green River watershed in southwest Wyoming. The Green River ultimately feeds the Colorado River in Utah. Since half of the water in Lake Superior belongs to Canada, this proposal was a non-starter.

Towing Glaciers

Others have considered towing glaciers down along the coast of California to harvest freshwater. The impracticability of this idea seems to have been recognized and this proposal has largely been abandoned.

River Diversion

Among the river diversion ideas, the Mississippi River has received increasing attention from groups and individuals - including the Arizona State Legislature.

“… A new water source could help augment Colorado River supplies. One promising possibility involves piping water that is harvested from Mississippi River flood waters. Diverting this water, which is otherwise lost into the Gulf of Mexico, would also help prevent the loss of human life and billions in economic damages when such flooding occurs. …” - Representative Tim Dunn, AZ State Legislator and cosponsor of AZ House Concurrent Memorial 2004 (May 11, 2021).

The westward diversion of water from the Mississippi River has actually been considered a number of times in the past. In 2012, the US Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) studied this along with a range of other alternatives. They found that this idea would have a long time horizon (30+ years), would be cost-prohibitive, and would face significant political opposition.

Despite the known limitations and pitfalls associated with this proposal, in 2021, the Arizona legislature petitioned the US Congress to conduct a study on the diversion of Mississippi River water to the Lower Colorado River Basin.

A Proposal is Put on the Table

In June 2022, a proposal was made to divert 250,000 gallons per second (gps) of water from the Mississippi River to the Colorado River Basin. At this rate, Lake Powell and Lake Mead would be filled in 624 days and the water crisis will be averted. Other purported benefits of the proposal include a reduction in Mississippi River flooding and cost savings from reduced flood response and recovery. This proposal first appeared in the Desert Sun News, a Palm Springs, CA, newspaper. In a few short months, this idea has gained national attention after appearing in Forbes, USA Today, the LA Times, Las Vegas Sun, St. Paul Pioneer Press, and the Waterways Journal, among other venues.

Given the viral growth of this proposal, we thought it would be beneficial to drill down and see if this could actually be used to help meet the need for water in the west. To allow people to weigh the strengths and weaknesses of this proposal, we've relied on defensible data from credible sources, we state our assumptions, and we "show our work."

To address this issue in a comprehensive way, we started with a composite of assumptions that were derived from the initial proposal. We further informed these assumptions by the assertions presented in the Arizona Legislature's petition to the US Congress.

"Harvesting" water from the Mississippi River will end the water shortage in the west AND save lives AND money?!

Proponents of the proposal have suggested that diverting Mississippi River water to the west will save lives and billions in economic damage.

Saving Lives

As of October 2022, a total of 12 deaths have been attributed to the Mississippi River flooding in 2019. It's impossible to know how piping water to the west might impact flooding-related fatalities in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). However, we can contrast the number of flooding fatalities in the MRB to the number of non-suicide deaths at Lake Mead National Recreation Area. Between 2006 and 2016, an average of 25 people died each year, making Lake Mead the deadliest national recreation area in the US.

Too many Americans lost their lives in the 2019 flooding. However, almost twice as many died each year at Lake Mead National Recreation Area between 2006 - 2016.

Diverting Mississippi River water westward isn't likely to save any lives in the MRB and might endanger the party boaters and adventure seekers who visit Lake Mead.

Saving Taxpayers Money

It's a little easier to assess the amount of money needed for flood recovery. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has estimated the total cost of the 2019 flood in the Midwest to be around $20 BILLION.

Let's assume that Mississippi River water is sold for a penny per gallon. In this case, the cost of raw water needed to fill Lake Powell and Lake Mead would be a little less than $135 BILLION.

This doesn't include the cost of treating the water, pipes, pumps, and valves, real estate acquisitions, operation and maintenance costs, etc.

The cost of raw water to fill Lake Powell and Lake Mead is more than six times the cost of recovery from the 2019 Mississippi River flooding.

Diverting Mississippi River water westward isn't likely to save money on flood recovery.

Drilling Down - A Few Important Details

How much water is available to "harvest" from the Mississippi?

The same drought that affects the Colorado River Basin also impacts the Mississippi River Basin. In 2012, drought was more severe in the MRB than it was in the CRB.

In October 2022, the level of water in the Mississippi River was so low that barges have run aground. In Memphis, TN, the Mississippi River reached the lowest level on record. Further downriver near Vicksburg, MS, long lines of barges were visible from NASA satellite imagery. These trends are attributed to low rainfall in the Upper Mississippi River and the Ohio River Basins. Other recent low water conditions occurred on the Mississippi River in 2012, 2000, and 1998.

For the proposal to work, the Mississippi River would have to flood on a year-round basis. Otherwise, it would take many more than 624 [continuous] days to refill Lake Mead and Lake Powell. The Mississippi River doesn't flood every year. Likewise, it doesn't flood uniformly.

The proposed 250,000 gps water diversion was based on a Mississippi River discharge of 4.5 MILLION gps at the Old River Control Structure, downriver from Vicksburg, MS. In fact, 4.5 MILLION gps corresponds to the highest discharge observed over a 20-year period (August 2002 - August 2022) based on data from the US Geological Survey. This is 36% more than the 20-year average discharge. During low flow conditions, the proposed diversion rate is around 17% of the Mississippi River discharge. This is close in magnitude to the 21% mandatory water reduction that the people in Arizona are facing in 2023.

Getting Water to the West - a Water Superhighway?

We need to consider how we might get water to the west. There's a practical limit to the speed at which water can be moved through any water conveyance structure - including aqueducts and pipes. A typical value is 5.5 ft/s. At a rate of 250,000 gps, we would need a channel with a cross-sectional area of nearly 6,100 square ft.

That seems like a large area, but how does it relate to the size of an actual channel or pipe?

  • One channel that's 100 ft wide and 61 ft deep
  • One channel that's 1,000 ft wide and 6.1 ft deep
  • Ten channels that are 100 ft wide and 6.1 ft deep
  • One 88 ft diameter "pipe"

These dimensions exclude foundation work and a right-of-way. Likewise, factors such as frictional losses in the conveyance system were neglected in this estimate. These considerations would further increase the size of the conveyance system.

For perspective, an interstate highway with two lanes in each direction is at least 126 ft wide.

  • 12 ft lane width x4
  • 4 ft left shoulder x2
  • 10 ft right shoulder x2
  • 50 ft median x1

In this case, it might be tempting to view this as building just another interstate. However, the finished dimensions of this interstate would be a 61 ft deep channel that traverses between 1,200 and 1,600 miles, and four to six states, depending on the final construction alignment.

Invasive Species

The Mississippi River contains more than just water. Invasive species - including silver and bighead carp - are a force to be reckoned with! The best way to manage the adverse ecological and economic consequences of an invasion of non-native species is to avoid it in the first place.

Nutrients

Nutrients - especially nitrates - will also be sent to the west. In fact, under average conditions, filling Lake Mead with water from the Mississippi River will increase the nitrate concentration in the Lake by more than 5 times. While the nitrates in Mississippi River water could be treated, the scale of such a project would be time-limited and cost-prohibitive.

The need for water in the Colorado River Basin is undeniable. While it can be tempting to look to other sources to supplement increasingly scarce water in the CRB, a more integrated view of water availability needs to be considered before advocating for a large-scale water movement from adjacent watersheds. Instead, steps should be taken across the nation - and beyond - to conserve water while also restoring the function of natural infrastructure in an effort to meet current needs while also providing a reliable supply of water in the future.

To learn more about this issue please visit www.wiu.edu/ies or download our paper at http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.21177.44640

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Created By
Roger Viadero
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Credits:

Created with images by 安琦 王 - "Water Pipeline in Water Treatment Plant" • chaiwat - "Blue water splashs wave surface with bubbles of air on white background." • avmedved - "Sunrise over the ocean in Miami Beach, Florida." • gizem - "Top view of Great Lakes satellite image. Elements of this image furnished by NASA." • smallredgirl - "Big icebergs in Ilulissat icefjord, Greenland" • Karen Roach - "Welcome to the state of Arizona road sign in the shape of the state map with the flag" • digidreamgrafix - "scenes at lake mead nevada arizona stateline" • mbruxelle - "Flood Protection Sandbags with flooded homes in the background (Montage)" • Stillfx - "American cash banknotes money" • trekandphoto - "View of the California Aqueduct moving water through the Mojave Desert towards Los Angeles." • MaxFX - "four lane desert highway" • nosyrevy - "Fish silver carp. Side view bighead carp. Isolated Hypophthalmichthys" • Dusan Kostic - "Farmer on a tractor with a sprayer makes fertilizer for young vegetable"