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GOI COVID STIMULUS An assessment

Any economy (or market or industry) work based on the balance between two forces: 1) Demand Side - comprising of consumers or intermediaries, 2) Supply side - comprising of makers of the goods or services. A market in which demand and supply are in sync is the ideal one

Supply side are the market makers who understand the requirement of the markets and then create compelling value prepositions for the consumers

Current supply side pain points include:

  • High debts, not able to service due to lockdown
  • Liquidity issues with payments / inventory stuck at multiple players
  • Supply chain weakness from Corona
  • Weak demand from end consumers, due to lockdown and changing consumer preferences

Demand side include consumers who are driven by their needs and wants to purchase the goods or services available in market from the supply side

Current pain points on the Demand side include:

  • Fear at the workplace - job uncertainty or job loss
  • Distress / decline in the investments - steep erosion in capital leading to loss of confidence & panic
  • Loss of confidence in the Governments ability to empower the demand side appropriately
  • Contingency mindset - fear & uncertainty forcing people to cut spends and just going for essentials

Impact of Government of India packages on supply & demand side of the market:

  • GoI schemes addresses the problems of the supply side by providing them easy credit access, labour reforms, deferment of regulatory deadlines etc.
  • Most of the supply side schemes are actually contingent in nature, which means that GoI doesn't incurr much cashflow on its part now, but is expecting other institutions, such as banks, to take initiative based on GoI guarantee - how it pans in action is yet to be seen
  • GoI has done very little to empower the demand side of the equation - job losses, pay cuts are continuing to rise, investment decline may take years to climb to pre-corona levels and deposit rates are all time low. Who will fix this is yet to be seen.
Part of the 'Financial Therapy' program of 'Exactitude Advisers'

Credits:

Created with images by Reproductive Health Supplies Coalition - "Contraception injection " • Austrian National Library - "Boys learn to sew, darning and tailoring in the secondary school. 1952" • Victor Xok - "The Lamp Atmosphere" • Alexander Schimmeck - "Italian Vespas at SOLITALIA, a cultural festival in Solingen-Ohligs, Germany" • John Schnobrich - "together now" • Joshua Rawson-Harris - "find me more on Instagram @joshrh19" • Mohd Aram - "untitled image" • AbsolutVision - "Stock market direction"

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