Our glaciers are in trouble. They are receding at alarming rates, and as they disappear, it will hurt more than just the penguins. The resulting sea level rise could be catastrophic to coastal cities around the world, although Antarctica is one of the most vulnerable areas to the monumental geographic changes caused by glacial melt. To tackle this problem, we'll need innovation on a grand scale.
1. What's the problem?
While glaciers typically advance and recede during the year, they've been receding in warmer months far more than they have been advancing in colder months since at least the 1970s, when satellites began recording this type of data. Accordingly, scientists at University of Colorado at Boulder used data collected by NASA’s GRACE satellite to conclude that 46 gigatons of ice were lost each year from 2003 to 2010. During just the course of the study, the ice lost from glaciers and ice caps added up to 4.3 trillion tons. That’s enough ice to cover the entirety of the U.S. sheet of ice 1.5 feet deep.
2. What does climate change have to do with this?
As the earth’s atmosphere warms, some scientists believe that glaciers will melt faster due to the Marine Ice Sheet Instability hypothesis (MISI), according to the European Geosciences Union. (Check out this blog from the European Geosciences Union to learn more). Marine ice sheets are sheets of ice that rest on ground below sea level. They hypothesize that ice can melt faster from the grounding line, which is the boundary between the ice sheet on land and the ice that floats in the water. This increased melting could occur when the base of the marine ice sheet (which is in the water) is unstable. It would mean that ice calves, or breaks off of, the ice sheet much quicker than usual. Check out this article for more about the concept. (The Marine Ice Sheet Instability hypothesis is still being worked out by scientists, and we might not know for sure if it will happen until it is happening).
Some scientists believe the Thwaites glacier in West Antarctica has already begun melting in this way.
3. And the sea level?
Sea level rise is also a major concern. The sea level has risen between four and eight inches in the past hundred years around the globe, partly thanks to glacial melt, according to National Geographic. By 2100, without major changes, scientists believe the coasts could see $50 trillion in losses per year due to damage, and see hundreds of millions of people displaced, according to a study by The Cryosphere, a peer-reviewed scientific journal partnered with the EGU. As people continue to move towards the coast, they put themselves in danger in the long run.
4. What can we do about all this?
Engineers Michael Wolovick and John Moore recently published an idea that could keep ice sheets from breaking so rapidly. They found a way that they believe will help stop the Marine Ice Sheet Instability effect from breaking up the Thwaites glacier, and by extension, much of Antarctica. Basically, they want to build a giant wall to support the ice sheets and block out warmer water from melting the bottom of the glacier.
5. Build a...what?
Yes, a wall. It would be one of the largest geoengineering projects ever created. They have identified two different potential designs. One would be about 1,000 feet tall, and serve as a makeshift plug for the part of the glacier that hangs over the water. The wall, made of dirt and gravel, would support the base of the glacier and help it rebuild. The other design would be a larger wall that could support the glacier and also help block out warm water from melting the base. This could effectively stop the Marine Ice Sheet Instability effect from breaking up the Thwaites glacier. The diagram below shows how the wall would function.
6. Could this actually work?
It certainly seems like a far-fetched idea. After all, it would take between 0.1 and 1.5 cubic kilometers, which is enough to fill up to 16 billion swimming pools. But despite some technical challenges, the geoscientists believe the simpler design has a 30 percent chance of working, while the larger design has an even greater potential for success.
Wolovick and Moore have said that while this project could definitely help for now, it would only be a "band-aid" solution. It can't prevent our earth from warming indefinitely, and it can't prevent the sea level from rising due to other factors. It's worth a try, though. As Moore said in a statement, “Doing geoengineering means often considering the unthinkable."
7. Will it happen?
It's certainly possible, but not anytime soon. Estimating a cost would require anticipating technology that doesn't exist yet. Wolovick and Moore recommend that people start attempting projects of this type with smaller icebergs and glaciers first, specifically with the Jakobshavn glacier in Greenland. Many other factors also need to be considered, including the marine life that inhabit surrounding waters. This project may be centuries away from coming to fruition, but the basic framework could aid scientists and engineers for years to come.
Credits:
Ashley Gallagher