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Turkey-Syria earthquake was a tragedy – but not a surprise John McCloskey made accurate forecast of February's earthquake over 20 years ago

Photo by Çağlar Oskay on Unsplash: İskenderun, Hatay Turkey – one of the places most affected by the 7.8 magnitude earthquake centered in Kahramanmaraş that killed more than fifty-five thousand people.

The most accurate earthquake forecast yet

"While predicting individual earthquakes is, and will probably remain, impossible, there will be few surprises about where the destructive earthquakes will occur." – John McCloskey

For someone who thinks predicting earthquakes is impossible, John McCloskey has come remarkably close. February's devastating earthquake in south-eastern Turkey and northern Syria was the fulfillment of a dismal scientific prophecy made over twenty years ago.

Today, John is professor of natural hazard science and co-director of the Tommorow's Cities Hub, but in 2002, he was working at the University of Ulster in Coleraine.

John was collaborating with earthquake scientists in Instanbul, Turkey, to investigate the stress building along the East Anatolian Fault – the plate boundary which geologically separates the country from neighbouring Syria.

A series of great historical earthquakes have occurred along this boundary and the country is scarred with dramatic canyons, many of which are popular tourist destinations today.

Based on its history, John and his Turkish colleagues believed another major earthquake was likely to occur in the region.

Everyone involved knew the risk was high – the region is densely populated, and a large quake could turn into a major humanitarian disaster.

What's stress got to do with it?

Stress builds along the East Anatolian Fault as the Arabian plate tries to slide past its neighbour. It's held in place by friction but when the stress becomes too much, the plates shudder past each other, sometimes moving metres at a time. This releases a huge burst of energy which causes an earthquake.

John and his team used historical records to map the changes in stress along the fault zone since 1822, and develop a model of ongoing plate movement.

Turkey is located over three clashing tectonic plates and is geologically separated from Syria by the East Anatolian Fault.

The region is one of the most seismically active on Earth outside of the notorious Pacific 'Ring of Fire'. However, the East Anatolian Fault has been relatively quiet in comparison to its northern counterpart which has seen 11 large earthquakes in the last century.

Learn more about what makes this region unique:

Back in 2002, John and his colleagues concluded that two sections of the fault were highly stressed and likely to generate major earthquakes in the near future.

John has earthquake forecasting form: the first of these sections, Elaziğ – Bingöl (shown as the boxed 'EB Region' below), partially ruptured in 2010 in a 6.1 magnitude earthquake which killed at least 51 people.

John's forecast from 2002 highlights the most stressed fault regions in red.

But the second section, Kahramanmaraş – Malatya (KM), which he predicted could result in an earthquake with magnitude 7.3 or higher, was all quiet.

That is, until 6 February 2023 at 4.17am when a magnitude 7.8 earthquake in Kahramanmaraş sent shock waves across the globe.

Following the deadly earthquake series, data compiled by US Geological Survey highlights just how precise John's forecast really was...

Red marks the spot: John and his colleagues strongly highlighted the Kahramanmaras – Malatya (KM) Region, indicating a section of the fault that could generate an earthquake with magnitude 7.3 or higher. The fault surface rupture on 6 February happened in that exact spot, resulting in a magnitude 7.8 quake.

On 6 February, a small earthquake to the south of Kaharamanmaraş loaded stress onto the region which immediately ruptured. Not only did the highlighted 'KM' section break, but the final earthquake tore through over 400 kilometres of the plate boundary generating a 7.8 magnitude earthquake.

For two weeks, the region was rocked by aftershocks, with six quakes having magnitude 6 or higher – strong enough to further damage buildings.

The largest aftershock, with an incredible 7.5 magnitude, hit the city of Ekinözü near Elbistan just nine hours after the initial earthquake. Over a month later, the region is still shaking.

Thousands of buildings collapsed in the wake of the earthquakes and, as the days dragged on, rescue efforts turned into a search for bodies. More than fifty-five thousand people lost their lives.

With many more still missing, the death toll continues to rise.

It's forecasting, not predicting

The earthquake was even bigger than John forecast, ripping past the ends of the highlighted fault segment. It extended to the north-east into an area which last ruptured in 1893 and to the south-west through an area last broken in 1822, more than two hundred years ago.

Cracks appeared along the fault line through Kaharamanmaraş, scarring fields, tearing up roads and eventually opening up into a vast chasm. Onlookers gathered in olive groves in Antakya which were torn in half overnight, leaving a 300 metre-long valley. They could see their neighbours in the distance across the newly opened rift, roughly the width of a football field away.

John says, "Because they had previously been ruptured, most earthquake scientists would have expected that the 1822 and 1893 segments would still have been too relaxed to release much energy, but they still slipped by as much as five metres releasing much more energy and causing much more devastation.”

Still, the accuracy of John's forecast demands global action to reduce risk in areas, like Turkey and Syria, which are particularly earthquake-prone.

"South-east Turkey is – and will remain – a seismic danger zone," John says.

The science of earthquake forecasting has come a long way since the '70s, when optimistic researchers assured the public they'd soon be able to predict the timing of earthquakes with precision – a tempting notion, but one that has never materialised.

Some, John included, question whether it can ever be done. He says, "While predicting individual earthquakes is, and will probably remain, impossible, there will be few surprises about where the destructive earthquakes will occur."

For this era of earthquake scientists, it's a question of where, rather than when.

Researchers can identify individual faults where high stress levels indicate particularly high risk. They can also use satellite radar to map the rate at which the Earth’s crust is deforming – this reveals whole regions which will experience large earthquakes in future.

Why was it so deadly?

The root causes of disaster are systemic not singular, so getting the science right is only a part of the problem. When researchers know where a large earthquake will strike, it becomes a matter of risk reduction.

With accurate forecasting – like that of John's Tommorow's Cities Hub – in place, governments can enforce stricter building codes, residents can make earthquake safety plans, and early warning systems can be designed and implemented.

But reducing risk costs money and requires commitment. Unfortunately, and too often, those in authority are willing to gamble that the big one will not happen on their watch.

Turkey has earthquake-resilient building codes – but with so many new buildings 'pancaked', accusations of corruption are rife.

Despite this, John emphasises that the story behind the devastation experienced in Turkey should not focus on blame. He says, "This only directs attention away from the problem. Instead, it should motivate worldwide change in our approach to development in areas of high seismic risk."

Reducing risk requires joined-up thinking to untangle the scientific, economic and political drivers to bring about systemic change.

"This is not just a scientific or engineering problem." John explains, "Multi-sectoral coalitions empowered by, sometimes sceptical, authorities are essential if we are to transform the socio-political environments that turn earthquakes into disasters."

Unfortunately, and too often, those in authority are willing to gamble that the big one will not happen on their watch.

Between now and 2050, UN Habitat predict that about two billion people will migrate into urban centres across the globe, 95% of them in the global south.

John says, "This gives us a historically unique opportunity to protect people from earthquakes, floods, and landslides, but we must act now. Delays will condemn hundreds of millions to futures blighted by avoidable disaster risk."

Learn more:

Read John's paper from 2002

For John's current research, check out the Tomorrow's Cities Hub

To ask John about his work, please email news.geos@ac.uk with 'TC Hub' as the subject line

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