What Sets apart the Top Stanley Cup Contenders NHL advanced statistics foresee success in stanley cup playoffs

When it comes time for post season in the National Hockey League (NHL), patterns tend to emerge.

From 1955-1960, the Montreal Canadiens reigned for five straight seasons, and again from 1975-1979. In the early '80s, the New York Islanders took over, keeping a four season streak alive. Nine franchises have seen at least one series of back-to-back victories. It is no surprise hockey fans went decades seeing only a handful of teams win.

With new rules and revenue sharing, the playing field is theoretically level. But lately, the Los Angeles Kings and Chicago Black Hawks dominate post season, trading off the cup the past four summers. This year, advanced statistics argue that it is the King’s turn to take home the title.

With less than ten games left in the 2015-16 season, fans have a good idea of what teams they will be watching come playoffs. Hockey-reference.com calculated the probability that each NHL team will make playoffs and their chances of winning the Stanley Cup. These percentages are based on 1,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, calculated daily.

The simulations estimate that the Washington Capitals will win the Stanley Cup. The Capitals are the only team to clinch a conference title, and lead the division and league. Last year, the New York Rangers were in their position. However, it was the Chicago Black Hawks who emerged victorious. Chicago led in four major categories of advanced statistics.

For the past few seasons, the NHL has tracked shot attempts on goal in the third period when teams are tied or within one goal. They emphasize the correlation between shooting in crucial situations and success in the playoffs. To measure this percentage they use a formula:

100 x shot attempts for / (shot attempts for + shot attempts against)

The Corsi-for percentage (CF%) uses the same formula, but illustrates a bigger picture. Corsi accounts for missed, blocked, and on-goal shots throughout the entire game. When a team's percentage is above 50, they average more shots than their opponent, thus controlling the puck more.

Faceoff (FO%) and offensive zone start percentages (oZS%) are more straight forward. The faceoff percentage tells us how often the team wins a draw. An offensive zone start percentage above 50 means that a team starts the majority of plays in the offensive zone. If a team falls below 50 percent, they start most faceoffs in the defensive zone.

This year, the Kings have been a dominant team statistically. 57.54 percent of shots in crucial situations were in their favor, a statistic the NHL deemed vital come playoffs. This Corsi-for percentage, which is about 3 percent above league average, indicates dominance in play, possession and volume of shots. They play primarily in the offensive zone, with an offensive zone percentage of 54.5 percent.

If the Kings continue to perform at their current rate, they stand a good chance of making it to the Stanley Cup Final. Their position is very similar to last year’s Black Hawks. They may not be at the top of the standings with the Washington Capitals, but their advanced performance factors make them an intimidating opponent this postseason.

Despite popular opinion, the Capitals could have trouble come playoffs. Although they have a 16.4 percent chance to win the Cup, they land below the league average in many key statistic categories. Similar to last year’s New York Rangers, they top standings ranking first overall. However, when it comes to advanced stats, they fall in the middle of the pack.

Made with Adobe Slate

Make your words and images move.

Get Slate

Report Abuse

If you feel that this video content violates the Adobe Terms of Use, you may report this content by filling out this quick form.

To report a Copyright Violation, please follow Section 17 in the Terms of Use.