Fantasy Football Guide to Draft Day
Whether you are a rookie diving into the Fantasy football world or a veteran ready to break through to stardom, here is the draft guide to take your team the top. Here are draft strategy breakdowns for each standard fantasy football position. Each draft is different, and adjustments will always need to be made to any plan you have going into draft day. Be prepared to make changes on the fly, but here is a strategy that will ensure you have team that is consistently reliable but also has the potential for a championship. One question remains... are you ready for some football?
Chapter 1: The Gunslingers
Do not draft a Quarterback before you have AT LEAST two reliable players at other positions. Yes, its exciting to own Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, but why draft them in the top two or three rounds when you can get a guy like Ben Roethlisberger two rounds later? The difference between the top tier Q.B.’s and the second tier is a minuscule amount; we are talking one or two points a game. Guys like Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan aren’t as as Andrew Luck, but they will get the job done and allow you to target thinner positions.
Best Draft Value: Rounds 4-6. Choosing a QB in the upper-middle rounds will get you a solid, reliable gunslinger.
Chapter 2: The Workhorses
You have probably heard the cliche draft advice to "always draft a running back first" but that's old school...and also still viable advice. Unless you are getting the undisputed best player at another position (Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski), then choosing a ball-carrier is nine times out of ten the best option. The NFL is moving more and more towards passing , and further and further from running. Naturally, wide receivers have been putting up more points than in the past but this does not mean that they should jump in the rankings; rather the opposite. Running backs that do still get a lot of carriers are in short supply, so grab at least one before they are gone. This past year, there were a small group of top choices, then a truckload of question marks after that. And if you do go for another position first, your next pick has to be a running back, or you could be settling for extremely week options at a position that is more vital than ever.
Best Draft Value: Round 1 should be a running back, but no matter who you draft in the first round, make sure you have at least two running backs by Round 4.
Chapter 3: The Highlight Reels
In years past, nearly all the first round picks would be RB's with a quarterback like Peyton Manning thrown in. Recently, with the uptick in the NFL's passing numbers, wide receivers have been going in round one. Do not fall into the hype. Wide-receivers are increasing their production, but this has a reverse effect on draft value. Simple economics, if the product (high scoring WR's) is in high supply, the demand is lower. Don't reach to take Odell Beckhem Jr. late in the first round when you can take a solid RB and get A.J. Green with your second pick. Only take a wide-receiver in the first round if you are completely sure there will be a good running back for your next pick. For instance, in 2012, if you saw that the top tier of RB's was all gone, but the best wide out, Calvin Johnson, was available and you figured you could get Adrian Peterson (coming off an ACL tear) with your second pick, then go for it. Johnson broke the receiving yards record and was the offensive player of the year and Peterson was the MVP (I went undefeated after week 3 ). However, the safest bet is to avoid WR's in the first, and get a solid one in the second.
Best Draft Value: 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. As with Running backs, make sure you have at least two WR's before Round 4 ends.
Chapter 4: The Big Boys
Tight Ends have greatly benefited from the passing influx in the NFL. There are now these physical freaks that are 6'6" and 260 lbs. (or more) that are fast enough to basically play receiver. Rob Gronkowski is the king, but there are other quality options that aren't as flashy, but can still put up big numbers. Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen were often drafted in rounds 4 and 5 and have both been excellent this year. Tyler Eifert leads the league in touchdowns catches and was likely one of the last TE's off the draft board. Meanwhile, Jimmy Graham was often taken in Rounds 2 or 3 but has severely underperformed. Go for a solid player in the middle rounds but you can reach a little for the guy you really want.
Chapter 5: The Reason it's Called Football
Analyzing kickers is pretty much a waste of time. You are going to have a few that end up averaging double digits by the end of the season. And the Patriots kicker, Stephen Gostkowski, is always a very good option. But don't be the guy that takes him, or another highly ranked kicker in the middle rounds. If you get a top guy, he will get you two or three points per game more than taking an average kicker in the last couple rounds. As long as the team has a reliable offense, the kicker will give you 7 or 8 points a game. Take it and leave it.
Best Draft Value: Low rounds. No need to take one before the last couple rounds. Use the higher spots to get boom or bust picks.
Chapter 6: The Other Side of the Ball
Defenses can be difficult to predict. For years the Bears, Steelers and Ravens were all consistently, quality options. Which type of fantasy defense is best depends upon the owner. Each year, a defense will put up big numbers because they get return touchdowns. This year it is Denver, last year it was Philadelphia. But I prefer consistent points, like Houston last year and Seattle this year. Now, Seattle was highly ranked, but you can usually find a solid option in the lower-middle rounds. Pay particular attention to schedules. If you draft St. Louis for instance, remember that they have to play two games each against Arizona and Seattle. On the flip-side, Indianapolis gets to play Houston and Tennessee twice each year. When deciding between two defenses, make sure to consider who has the most games against "bad" offenses and if they play against perennial offensive powerhouses like New England, during fantasy football playoffs.
Comprehensive draft guide
- Round 1: Running Back, take the best one on the board, but make sure he is reliable. This is the core of your team.
- Round 2: Wide Receiver, likely, the top two or three will be gone but there will still be very good wide outs available, regardless of where you are picking.
- Round 3: Running Back/ Wide Receiver, you have a little more freedom here so go for a high potential guy, at either position. He will be your number two, so you can be a little risky. Use Round 4 to take which ever one you didn't take with your last pick. Make sure at least one of the two is a consistent player.
- Round 5-7: You still have several blank spaces to fill in your roster. In these rounds you need a quarterback, tight end and your "flex" (which typically can be a WR, RB or TE depending on your league). You need to evaluate how the draft is flowing here. At this point, there probably aren't many running backs that do not have major issues here, so draft one sooner rather than later. You can usually get decent WR3's later, but if there is still a top 24 option, grab him. Gronkowski is certainly gone by now, along with a few others most likely, but you can still get a strong option at this point. If all of the good guys are gone, then just wait on TE. Apply the same logic with QB's and TE's. Most of your opponents won't take backups till much later, so you can wait awhile if most already have one. If "your guy" is off the board, then just wait until later on and draft another RB or WR.
- Rounds 8-10: Bench and Defense, now that you have your starting lineup almost complete, time to pick your defense and start filling out your bench. At this point the top few defenses are probably gone, but you can still probably get a top 5 or 6 option here. If you did your research, you know which defense should have a easy schedule, especially in the playoffs. Draft smart, but don't over think it. There will typically be a team whose defense breaks out that doesn't even get drafted. For your backups, try and go for a good mix of consistent (usually veteran players) and a few high ceiling players. Ignore cheat sheets at this point. Pick the guys you want here. Here is where the sleepers are chosen, so do your research and draft the guys that just might make your season. If they don't pan out, well...good thing you followed the upper round advice and you still have a solid team.
- Round 11-15: Make sure to fill out the rest of your needs. Throw in a couple flier picks too. You do not have to draft backups at QB, TE, DEF or K (don't forget to draft a kicker by the way) because you will be able to pick up free agents to plug in for bye weeks. This also allows you to take more potentially breakout players.
With the brilliance of the internet, every statistic you can imagine is somewhere online. Use the plethora of information available to your advantage. Throughout the preseason, track who is producing and who isn't. Discover the next Devonta Freeman but still draft consistent veterans that will compensate for your high risk/high reward players' dud weeks. In addition, don't stress over bye weeks. It is usually worth sacrificing one bad week to add a strong player that will contribute in the other 12 weeks (plus playoffs). Take this guide, make it your own, and go draft your way to fantasy stardom.