GET A MOVE ON: COLORADO’S IN-MIGRATION EASED UP IN 2022
In the song “Colorado” (aka If I had a wagon), the bouncy lyrics tell of a person who—by any means possible—aims to get to Colorado. And it’s a migration tale that’s been repeated often since the song was written in 1967.
But the pace at which people are moving here seems to be slowing down.
Data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that net migration into Colorado (people moving in compared to people moving out), totaled 5,376 in 2022 - or 0.5 percent. That compares to recent years with in-migration surges of nearly 70,000 (2015). Still, Colorado was one of 26 states (including Washington D.C.) with net in-migration, and one of 32 to gain population.
Notably, California — traditionally one of the most popular states for inbound moves—experienced hefty out-migration, with 343,230 more people leaving than arriving. It also registered a net population loss of 0.3 percent. In-migration was topped by Florida, at 318,855.
Locally, Northern Colorado seems to be a stronger attraction than its Front Range neighbors. Change-of-address data from the U.S. Postal Service shows the Fort Collins-Loveland metro area with an inbound move rate of 53.6 percent. The Denver-Aurora metro registered just 49.2 percent, and Colorado Springs checked in at 50.8 percent.
Related information from United Van Lines shows that job requirements were the No. 1 reason (32.3 percent) their customers moved into Colorado, followed by family (30.5) and lifestyle (23.2) reasons. On the flip side, family was the top reason for moving out (34.8 percent), followed by work (29.3) and retirement (21.1).
Call me if you or someone you know is considering moving or relocating.
RISING RENTS TIP THE SCALES TOWARD OWNERSHIP
With interest rates up and sales prices not done climbing, is it better to rent or buy in Northern Colorado?
A look at trends in local housing rents might help to settle the debate. In Fort Collins, for instance, the average rent on an attached two-bedroom unit (think condo or apartment) hit $1,802.76 in February of this year, up 31.5 percent since the fall of 2020 – the point at which rents started reacting to the pandemic pinch.
Over the same period, rents on single-family homes accelerated even faster. The average rate on a three-bedroom single-family house in Fort Collins jumped 35.6 percent to $2,441.30; in Loveland, it grew 41.8 percent to $2,339.75 (See related charts for rents in Northern Colorado communities).
So, in this setting, how does renting stack up to buying?
Today, a $500,000 home rents for about $2,500 a month. Add property insurance and it comes to $2,535. Meanwhile, if you bought the same house, paying on a 6.25 percent mortgage loan, you would pay $2,971. Add insurance, taxes, and maintenance costs and it comes to $3,663.
At the start, renters hold an advantage. But it doesn’t last. After 10 years, with rents expected to rise at an annual average rate of 5 percent, the same renter will be laying out $3,933 per month. The homeowner is still locked in, so their payment is now less than the renter. Also, with home values still appreciating at an average rate of 3.83 percent, that home is now worth $728,277. Add the equity acquired from the mortgage payments, and the homebuyer comes out ahead by $188,320 after 10 years. A renter has no equity to show for 10 years of rental payments.
So, back to the original question. If you’re looking at staying in one place for the long-term, then your answer is in the numbers.
Call me to discuss your rental—or home buying—questions.
2 NEW DEVELOPMENTS COULD BRING 1,400+ HOMES TO NORTH LOVELAND
If you want to know where to look for a new home in the next few years, keep an eye on what’s brewing in the northwest corner of Loveland
The Loveland City Council recently approved a 266-acre annexation that could accommodate the construction of more than 1,000 homes over the coming decade. Developers of the site known as Taft Ridge are proposing a mix of single-family homes, townhomes, duplexes, and multi-family units, along with commercial uses. Taft Ridge is located near the intersection of Taft Avenue and 57th Street.
Based on Loveland’s current average of 2.3 residents per household—according to the latest U.S. Census estimates—Taft Ridge would eventually be home to more than 2,300 people.
Taft Ridge is not the only development with the potential for kicking up construction dust in northwest Loveland. The Loveland City Council in February also gave the go-ahead for the Green Valley Ranch addition, which calls for 405 homes on 89 acres. Green Valley Ranch is located near Wilson Avenue, between 50th and 57th streets.
Like Taft Ridge, Green Valley Ranch will include a mix of housing types, including single-family, multi-family, and attached homes.
Earlier this year, we asked planning departments in several Northern Colorado communities about development trends and local priorities. In the first of a series, we feature responses from Fort Collins Senior City Planner, Jenny Axmacher. Her comments were edited for length and clarity.
FORT COLLINS: MANY NEEDS, SHRINKING LAND FOR DEVELOPMENT
What are the current priorities or focus areas of impact as we look into the future for your city?
Major themes and areas of focus within the 2022/2023 Strategic Plan, identified through community outreach or as a city council priority, include:
- Affordability
- Multimodal transportation and public transit
- Equity, inclusion, and diversity
- Environmental sustainability
- Resilience and asset management
- Community vibrancy
How has residential development changed and what are the current challenges and opportunities?
Changes:
- The entire community is aging, which means different needs/products in the future.
- We’re seeing less single-family housing, especially as our supply of developable land decreases and home prices become increasingly unaffordable.
Challenges:
- Evolution from greenfield development to infill and redevelopment, which drives a higher degree of complexity.
- We mostly have infill/difficult development sites left, which can extend approval times. It’s hard to make those last few puzzle pieces all come together.
- There aren’t enough affordable places available for people to rent or purchase; or what is available and affordable, isn’t the kind of housing people need.
- Housing is expensive to build, and the cost of building new housing will likely continue to increase over time.
- Price escalation impacts everyone and disproportionately impacts indigenous and people of color (BIPOC) and low-income households.
- In updating the land use code, finding balance between housing and affordability goals vs. what some in the community want or don’t want.
- Water: both pricing and availability.
Opportunities:
- 60 percent of vacant land is zoned for residential uses.
- We continue to prioritize our precious inventory of land, to ensure that development is capturing value for our community.
- The city does have tools to encourage affordable housing, but the current amount of funding and incentives for affordable housing is not enough to meet our goals.
What projects of note are defining or changing the future of your city or town?
Defining projects:
- Montava:1,000 acres near Mountain Vista/Timberline; approximately 4,200 dwelling units and 450,000-750,000 square feet of commercial, industrial, and/or employment uses.
- Bloom: 226 acres near Mulberry/Greenfields; mixed use community with 1,600 dwelling units (15 percent affordable); about 230,000 square feet of retail and commercial space, and about 86,000 square feet of office space.
- I-25 and Prospect/Gateway at Prospect Road: mixed use projects on both sides of I-25.
- Housing Catalyst projects: Oak 140, Impala Drive.
- Block 23: downtown at Maple Street and College Avenue.
- Rescue Mission: relocation to Hibbon Court.
Leveraging our connections in the Leading Real Estate Companies Of The World® network, as well as the Ninja Nation®, our Relocation team works very hard to ensure that the customer and Broker Associates are a good fit based on a variety of key factors.
The Group Relocation Services is a benefit we provide to our Broker Associates/Partners as a resource to assist them, and their customers, with connections to professional, experienced, respected agents all across the globe, and right here in our own country. The customer experience is our main focus, and we always try to exceed expectations with every single connection we assist in making. In the end, we want happy customers who become raving fans of our referral process, and the great agents with whom we are able to connect them. The Group Relocation Services primarily focuses on residential real estate connections, but we have deep resources for commercial real estate, as well.
REAL ESTATE BY NUMBERS
- $15.2 million. Price paid by Denver-based investors to buy the Parkwood Place Apartments in Greeley for $15.2 million. The 124-unit complex is located at 1709 31st Street Road in south Greeley.
- $6.6 million. Sale price for Freedom Storage, a 12-building Loveland self-storage complex located at 115 Peridot Avenue in southeast Loveland. The facility was acquired by a Utah-based investor.
- $70 million. Sale price for the Carillon at Boulder Creek, a 117-unit senior living apartment complex located at 2525 Taft Drive, near the east side of the University of Colorado campus in Boulder.
- $36.8 million. Price paid by a Lakewood investor for the Fox Meadows Apartments, a 138-unit complex located at 3644 S. Timberline Road in southeast Fort Collins.
- 52. Number of workforce-oriented apartment units proposed for a location in Broomfield. Called Harvest Station, the estimated $30 million project is planned for the northwest corner of Wadsworth Boulevard and 118th Avenue.
- 25. Ranking for the Fort Collins-Loveland metro area in the Wall Street Journal’s Emerging Housing Markets Index for Winter 2023. In all, 300 metro areas were evaluated. Boulder ranked No. 43 and Greeley ranked No. 137.
- 85 percent. Approximate share of current mortgage holders in the United States that hold a rate below 6 percent. As of February 28, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.94 percent, according to bankrate.com.
- $9.8 million. Recent sale price for 9,000-square-foot home in Boulder. Located at 950 Gilbert Street in southwest Boulder, the same house sold to the previous owners for just $2.3 million in 2014.
- 55,000. Square footage for new eCommerce fulfillment center that Kroger Co. is building in Johnstown. The facility, located in the Trade@2534 Industrial Park near U.S. Highway 34, is due to open this summer.