Context is everything when considering trends.
There have certainly been winters during which the northeast United States has been warmer than usual, or gone an entire season without much snow, but there is something different about this year(2022 -2023) given all we know about changing weather patterns across the globe.
It's now March and most of the southern half of New England and large portions of upstate New York are in a snow drought. There has been precipitation, but most of it has fallen as rain, because of higher than normal temperatures.
In Connecticut, even during the mildest winters, there is always snow in the northwest corner of the state. In late fall, it's the first place to see early signs of winter.
In January I made my way there in search of winter, but it was no where to be found. The trails were open and brown. The ponds were ice covered in some places, but unfrozen in others. The temperature was 45F at midday.
This is what climate change looks like in this part of the world.
Earlier in the month, as I drove across the Tug Hill Plateau in northern New York, there was a report on the radio about how the lack of snow was killing the region's snowmobile season. And more importantly for many families, killing the business of snowmobiling they count on to pay the bills.
The winter began with a historic blizzard in Buffalo, but that extreme storm, fueled by cold winds and moisture coming off the Great Lakes, has proven to be the exception in an otherwise warmer than normal season.
There was a time, decades ago, when a record breaking snow drought like this one would have been seen as an aberration. A record to be remembered, not one to be concerned with. But in the context of severe weather around the planet, and growing evidence of climate change, it is difficult to ignore this winter's warm New England weather. Is this a precursor of winters to come? Are the weather patterns of the mid-Atlantic moving further north? We don't know for sure.
The region may still see significant snowfall in either March or April, but the likelihood of that happening shrinks each day we move closer to spring.
This winter is one for the record books and it will take several more before we can decide if we are living through a trend or a brief warm spell.
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© Dean Pagani 2023
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© Dean Pagani 2023