We are the Environment, Housing and Infrastructure Scrutiny Panel. It's our role to scrutinise Jersey's government on matters of public importance, policy and legislation which falls within these three remits.
What is the Carbon Neutral Roadmap?
The Carbon Neutral Roadmap supersedes the Carbon Neutral Strategy 2019. It is the product of a people-powered approach to inform policy development and aims to deliver on Jersey's objectives in response to the States' declared Climate Emergency and its subsequent commitment to undertake action to develop a carbon reduction plan for Jersey.
The Carbon Neutral Roadmap sets out a pathway to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and outlines the proposed policies that will start Jersey’s journey to net zero. Although the Roadmap covers the period between 2022 - 2050, its focus is on the delivery of carbon reduction policies over the next four years. Therefore, it is recognised that the policies and delivery plans will need to be continually updated in line with Jersey's commitments.
To date, Islanders’ views, detailed technical studies and the recommendations made by the 45 Citizens who formed Jersey’s Citizens’ Assembly on Climate Change has helped to inform the proposed policies within the Carbon Neutral Roadmap, which is scheduled for States' debate on 25th April 2022.
The Carbon Neutral Roadmap proposes that Jersey will align with international standards and agreements on climate change. As such, it proposes for the Paris Agreement to be extended to Jersey which will align Jersey with the international community. To be eligible the Island must adopt an emissions reduction pathway that is steered by the science. Therefore Jersey will:
- demonstrate global and local commitment to a science-led approach to decarbonisation
- create clear targets that help Government, Parishes and Islanders to identify their role
- be flexible to become carbon neutral at an earlier agreed date.
The Draft Carbon Neutral Roadmap proposes five strategic policies which have not only provided a framework against which the recommendations of the Citizens' Assembly could be tested, it has also enabled the development of the carbon reduction policies based on consistent strategic direction. The five strategic policies are outlined within the Carbon Neutral Roadmap as follows:
- Jersey's net-zero emissions pathway (what the CNR seeks to achieve)
- Island energy market (implications for Jersey's energy market)
- Financing strategy (how action will be funded)
- Policy programme and development (how investment will be prioritised)
- Becoming carbon neutral (what the CNR seeks to achieve).
The four categories of the carbon reduction policies for 2022-2025 are outlined within the Carbon Neutral Roadmap as follows:
- Transport (transport emission reduction policies)
- Heating (heating, cooling and cooking emissions reduction policies)
- Other on and off-Island emissions (policies that tackle other on and off-island emissions)
- Enabling Policies (policies that enable delivery and implementation and support the systemic change needed to transition the Island to a low carbon economy fairly).
The Carbon Neutral Roadmap establishes that the policy programme and subsequent delivery plans will:
- Take a people-powered approach, supporting Islanders to respond as citizens – with an active part to play in the transition to net zero
- Ensure a Just Transition ( the costs do not disproportionately fall on people on lower incomes, or on those currently employed in carbon-heavy industries)
- Not, overall, increase income inequality.
The Panel's Review
The Panel launched its review of the Draft Carbon Neutral Roadmap on 20th January 2022. Our review was primarily in response to the recommendation made by the Citizens’ Assembly which requested that scrutiny of the Government's response to the Citizens’ Assembly recommendations should be undertaken prior to the election in June 2022.
In scoping its review, the Panel was cognisant of the strict timeline for its review and, as such, agreed to align its review with the Government's six-week period public consultation on the draft Carbon Neutral Roadmap which concluded on 31st January 2022.
Considering the substantial and wide-reaching engagement and consultation that had been undertaken to date in respect of the climate change workstream, the Panel’s previous scrutiny review of the Climate Change Citizens’ Assembly process, as well as the public consultation on the draft Carbon Neutral Roadmap, the Panel agreed that aligning its review with the government's public consultation was an appropriate approach to follow. Moreover, the Panel was mindful to minimise duplication of effort and any inadvertent confusion to members of the public or stakeholders during the public consultation process through it actively seeking further views concurrently. Although the Panel did not actively target views from stakeholders, the usual channels for submitting views to Scrutiny were accessible.
Public hearings were held with the Minister for Infrastructure, the Minister for the Environment and ATF Fuels between February and March 2022.
The Panel also wrote to the Minister for Infrastructure, Minister for the Environment, Minister for Children and Education, Minister for Home Affairs, Minister for Treasury and Resources, Minister for Economic Development, Tourism, Sport and Culture and Minister for External Relations and Financial Services with additional written questions.
Our review has assessed the Government's response to the Citizens’ Assembly recommendations. Additionally, how the recommendations and the Government's response to them is reflected within, and aligns with, the policies proposed and their delivery. Our review has also evaluated the public consultation responses on the draft Carbon Neutral Roadmap in line with the policies proposed.
Our review has resulted in 29 key findings, 9 recommendations and 1 amendment . A summary of these findings and recommendation follows next. Alternatively, to read them all in detail, click on the full report below.
The Roadmap's five strategic policies
When considering the five strategic policies, the Panel’s review has found that Jersey has previously failed to meet its targets to achieve 80 per cent reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 under the Kyoto Agreement, and as set out in the Pathway 2050: An Energy Plan for Jersey.
However, the Government considers that the Carbon Neutral Roadmap is more likely to succeed where Pathway 2050 failed due to the level of funding (£23 million) provided for the Roadmap’s first delivery phase of policy initiatives. Additionally, with there now being a clear trajectory of actions outlined up to 2050, to facilitate commitment to the pathway.
However, the Panel emphasises that meeting the trajectory for the Paris Agreement to net zero by 2050 will remain a challenge which relies on the Government to continue to meet sufficient funding requirements over the longer term of the Roadmap.
Noting that strategic policy two of the Carbon Neutral Roadmap assumes that electricity imported to Jersey will remain carbon free or low carbon, affordable and reliable going forward. The Panel raised concern regarding the postulation on which the policy was being based given that France had recently shut down three of its nuclear power plants and the impact this might have on both Jersey’s low-carbon emissions status and the reliability of supply to the Island. It is unknown how (or if) this affects Jersey’s greenhouse gas emissions inventory accounting, however, the Government anticipates no disruption to the Island’s electricity supply.
Consequently, the Panel has recommended that the Minister for the Environment should expand further on whether the closure of the three nuclear power plants in France affects the provenance of the electricity supply to Jersey from that of zero emissions nuclear power to a carbonised power source, and if so, how this is being accounted for in Jersey’s greenhouse gas emissions inventory.
The Panel notes that a significant consideration for the Carbon Neutral Roadmap is the longer-term security of supply and provenance of the Island’s power, and strategic policy two of the Roadmap indicates the requirement for an energy market review which would include consideration for Jersey’s electricity supply. The Panel identified that the likelihood of Jersey continuing to have some degree of connectivity to the European market was considered high, however, it was emphasised that recent global tensions, such as Brexit, and energy volatility, was placing urgency on Jersey to consider its security of supply.
Moreover, the Panel found that the Citizens’ Assembly recommended the exploration of Jersey-based renewable energy generation, infrastructure, and the promotion of self-sustainability forms of renewable energy sources, to reduce Jersey’s dependency on the French grid. The Panel has observed that whilst there is long-term thinking for these types of opportunities by the Government (such as an offshore wind farm) even if there was immediate agreement to build an offshore wind farm, it would still take several years to accomplish.
As such, the Panel found that with a proposed target of 2030 for Jersey to achieve carbon neutrality, the Island would need to consider shorter-term initiatives that were currently feasible to achieve. It was, therefore, noted that the Roadmap’s first delivery phase concentrates on the immediately available options and to ensure the easiest way to reduce carbon emissions, electrification is being used as the first step. However, sustainable energy generation from sources like wind and tidal will be considered in the long-term.
The Panel has observed that to ensure a selection of the policy initiatives which will provide the best value for money in respect of the carbon reductions they intend to provide for Jersey over the next four years, a multi-analysis tool was used to score proposed policies and prioritise them according to their carbon abatement potential and other relevant factors to identify the best outcome for the available funding.
Moreover, the Panel has identified that additional significant funding will be required to achieve the Island’s carbon neutral and net-zero targets and the cost of future delivery plans will need to be considered in future Government Plans. As such, a financing strategy for Jersey’s complete decarbonisation journey remains unclear. Considering that proposals for new economic instruments will need to be considered in the medium to long-term to continue to fund the trajectory of Jersey’s pathway to net zero, it is noted that a longer-term financing strategy is planned to conclude in 2024; with associated measures incorporated into the Government Plan 2025-28. It is further noted that the economic instruments will be subject to consultation and impact analysis.
Throughout its review, the Panel observed that there was confusion amongst the Government consultation responses regarding the terminology for ‘carbon neutral’ and ‘net zero’ and how either, or both, positions could be achieved as part of Jersey’s pathway. The link between the two positions did not appear to be clearly understood and this highlights a need that further information is required to inform the public that through Jersey aligning with the Paris Agreement (net zero by 2050) that becoming carbon neutral at a target date along the way would also remain achievable. In response to this, the Government has revised its SMART objectives across policies, where appropriate, to address the concerns raised.
However, the Panel has recommended that the Government should roll out suitable public awareness raising campaigns in order to educate and familiarise the public with climate change terminology, as well as communicating policy aims and outcomes as simply as possible and across multiple communication channels.
Long-term governance and oversight
The Panel has observed that current proposals for governance and oversight of the Carbon Neutral Roadmap include:
- the establishment of a Ministerial portfolio with responsibility for Energy and Climate Change
- a new Standing Scrutiny Panel on Energy and Climate Change
- a new Programme Office created within the Strategic Policy, Planning and Performance Department
- a ‘Carbon Neutral Network’ to facilitate stakeholder engagement and policy development.
Notwithstanding this, the Panel has identified that there is no formal framework proposed within the Carbon Neutral Roadmap for independent, scientific oversight and governance, despite this being considered best practice across the UK and Europe.
This raises concern with the Panel given the long-term nature of the Roadmap and that climate technology will continue to advance. Policies and delivery plans will need to be continually updated in line with scientific and technological advancements, as well as Jersey’s societal and economic commitments.
Considering the nature of the long-term policy ambition stretching over multiple political terms of Government, the Panel considers this will make ongoing, scientifically-orientated and independent oversight difficult or inconsistent if the only independent oversight is carried out by a Scrutiny Panel which would be wholly political in its membership and would likely not comprise the necessary scientific expertise. Therefore, whilst a standing Scrutiny Review Panel would indeed have its own role to play, the Panel does not consider it sufficient or appropriate to rely on this alone for continued independent oversight of the Roadmap.
In light of this, the Panel has recommended that the Minister for the Environment should support the Panel’s amendment to establish an independent, scientific climate council and subject to the successful adoption of the amendment by the States, should ensure that before he leaves office that Officers are instructed to set this into motion so that the necessary groundwork can progress prior to the new Government term.
The Panel also highlights that although it has been demonstrated that framework climate change legislation, along with a group of autonomous experts, is considered by experts to be beneficial in guiding mitigation and adaptation planning for climate change, Jersey does not currently have any overarching climate framework legislation.
Moreover, that it was considered by the Carbon Neutral Steering Group that such primary legislation was disproportionate to Jersey’s size. Instead, it was felt that requesting the Paris Agreement be extended to Jersey was a high profile, international commitment and that this, coupled with the proposed governance processes as set out in the Carbon Neutral Roadmap, was sufficient to deliver on carbon emissions reduction targets.
Despite this, the Panel learned that the Minister for the Environment considers that there would be merit in pursuing over-arching legislation, provided that doing so would not hinder the delivery of the proposed Carbon Neutral Roadmap policies. The Panel has recommended that the current Minister for the Environment should formally advocate to his successor that a Ministerial Decision be signed at the start of the new Government term which instructs officers to draft climate framework legislation with the intention of this being lodged in the States for debate before the end of Q1 2023.
With regard to establishing an independent, scientific climate council for Jersey, concern was raised by Ministers which emphasised that establishing an independent scientific council would be too costly. However, the Panel has identified that it is plausible to establish and operate such councils on varied budgets, depending on their scope and size. For example, the size and available resources vary across different independent scientific councils in Europe, with members ranging from 4 to 15, and annual budgets varying significantly from EUR 200,000 to EUR 4 million.
A similar approach has already proven possible in Jersey through the establishment of the Expert Advisory Panel for the Citizens’ Assembly on Climate Change which had a 6-member membership and cost GBP 22,000 (based on payments of GBP 500 per day to 5 members of the expert panel).
The Panel's amendment
Owing to concerns over the lack of a formal framework for governance and independent, scientific oversight and the known benefits this can bring, the Panel lodged an amendment to P.74/2022 which seeks to establish an independent, scientific climate council, proportionate to Jersey, to enhance the governance and oversight of the long-term delivery of the Roadmap.
The Panel's amendment proposes the formation of a independent, scientific climate council that is comprised of:
- an odd number of members
- a Chair chosen by the membership
- one member with expertise in the field of Energy
- one member with expertise in the field of Economics
- one member with expertise in the field of Climate Technology.
The Panel's amendment proposes the focus of independent, scientific climate council to include:
- providing independent science-based advice on setting and meeting carbon budgets and preparing for climate change
- monitoring progress in reducing emissions and achieving carbon budgets and targets and recommending actions to keep Jersey on track
- conducting independent analysis into climate change science, economics and policy
- engaging with a wide range of organisations and individuals to share evidence and analysis.
It is the Panel’s view that an independent, scientific council which is established with the appropriate composition, mandate, capacity and overall visibility in the climate policy discourse, will enhance the governance and oversight of the long-term delivery of the Carbon Neutral Roadmap, by providing weight and accountability to climate policy processes.
Moreover, it will enhance the governance framework already proposed by P.74/2022, to further the commitment and accountability of the Roadmap over the longer term. Fundamentally, it will assist in keeping the Government on track to meet its climate objectives and to hold the Government accountable.
The Roadmap's carbon reduction policies
When considering the four categories of proposed carbon reduction policies, the Panel has observed that Ministers and members of the Carbon Neutral Steering Group are not completely aligned on the speed at which electrification of vehicles is being proposed. Whilst in agreement with the policy direction, the Minister for Infrastructure believes that the transition away from fossil fuels to the electrification of vehicles is happening too fast and that Jersey is not prepared.
Moreover, evidence suggests that Jersey Electricity would like to see some measures to the proposed subsidies for EV chargers “fine-tuned” to avoid unintended consequences. For example, that financial support for EV chargers is reserved for ‘smart’ chargers “to ensure charging is restricted to off-peak, overnight periods when demand on the grid is low, power is cheaper for the consumer and capacity is plentiful.” The Panel notes that it is the Government's intention to work on the policy details in further consultation with key stakeholders in delivery phase 1.
The Panel identified that policy TR2 ‘Vehicle Scrappage Incentive’ has been removed from the Carbon Neutral Roadmap owing to concerns raised in the public consultation that the value of the incentive would not be sufficient to meet the policy’s aims and for potential abuse of the system. The £410,000 in funding previously allocated to policy TR2 has been redistributed across policies HT3 ‘Energy Performance Certificates’; TR1 ‘Speeding up adoption of electric vehicles; and TR3 ‘Supporting transition fuels.’
The Panel identified that concerns were raised during the Government's public consultation, and to the Panel, regarding the absence of a policy within the draft Carbon Neutral Roadmap for the adoption of standard grade renewable content petrol and diesel. In light of this, the Panel considered the possibility of an amendment to address this gap. However, it was noted in the revised lodged version of the Carbon Neutral Roadmap that policy TR3b has been included.
This proposed policy outlines the research and market analysis that will be undertaken in consultation with industry stakeholders to determine a policy position on the suitability of renewable content fuels for Jersey regarding financial, infrastructure and spatial implications and options by the end of 2022. In respect of this research and market analysis, the Panel has recommended that the Government should ensure that the analysis in consultation with industry stakeholders for policy TR3b must also include consideration for how the Government will ensure a level playing field and competitive market across the Island’s fuel industry as to avoid any competitive advantage as an unintended consequence of policy TR3 and TR3b.
With regard to policy TR5 ‘End the importation and registration of petrol and diesel vehicles that are new to the Island from 2030’, the Panel has identified that the policy has been designed to ensure that Jersey does not become a ‘dumping ground’ for older, polluting vehicles. In addition, that the policy will be developed with further stakeholder engagement and consultation, and it is the further intention of the GoJ to create an exemption for historic, classic vehicles within the draft legislation.
The Panel notes that the Sustainable Transport workstream has been impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic and as result, progress has been slower than anticipated. Notwithstanding this, it is the intention for the GoJ to publish a Sustainable Transport Roadmap by the end of 2022 and it is envisaged that these policies will form a similar Roadmap-type framework to that of the Carbon Neutral Roadmap.
The Panel found that the public consultation responses highlighted the importance of taking the needs of disabled Islanders into consideration when developing the Sustainable Transport Roadmap, as well as ensuring a ‘Just Transition’. In light of this, the Panel has recommended that the Government should ensure that as part of its preparation of the Sustainable Transport Roadmap, the needs of disabled Islanders are taken into full consideration, as well as how to ensure a ‘Just Transition’ within all the proposed policies.
Moreover, as part of regular, ongoing governance and oversight of the Roadmap, the Government must continue to review impact assessments of its policies on an annual basis, to ensure that a ‘Just Transition’ is adhered to throughout the life of the Roadmap and with a particular watching brief on global energy prices.
In respect of aviation, the Panel found that since preparing the draft Carbon Neutral Roadmap, Ports of Jersey has become a signatory to the Toulouse Declaration (an agreement to help the aviation industry become more eco-conscious) and has committed to ensure a net-zero future.
When considering the policies for heating, cooling and cooking, the Panel has observed that a potential barrier to policy HT1 ‘Supporting low carbon heating systems and home insulation’ is the lack of available on-Island skills and expertise to roll this policy initiative out faster. The Panel notes that the Government has acknowledged this barrier, however, as the funding for this in the first delivery phase is capped and will therefore limit the number of heating boilers which can realistically be changed, this will allow more time for the Government to work on a skills strategy and to be able to train local people to deliver more heating system transitions in the future.
The Panel observed that a fundamental concern raised in the Government's public consultation was regarding policy HT1 and ensuring a ‘Just Transition.’ However, to ensure that Islanders are not adversely impacted by increased income inequality as a direct result of the proposed policies, the Government advised that a distributional impact assessment of the policies was carried out, which helped to identify where things may be made unequal for Islanders and how to mitigate this.
The Panel has identified that although the Citizens’ Assembly recommended the deadline for achieving policy HT2 ‘Review building bye-laws’ should be 2023, the Carbon Neutral Roadmap proposes a deadline of 2025. The Panel notes that the rationale provided for this by the Minister for the Environment is that 2023 is deemed too soon for the construction industry to be able to adjust to new building regulations. Moreover, this time is considered necessary for the industry to train and up-skill in new building methods, as well as new materials and equipment.
Given that a landlord licensing scheme is noted as a dependency for policy HT3 ‘Energy Performance Certificates’ but has not yet been adopted by the States Assembly, the Panel observed that alternative options for identifying rental properties are being considered by the Government to be able to pursue the policy.
The Panel has also observed that the Minister for Children and Education acknowledges that there may be challenges in relation to resourcing the ambitious deadlines set against the objectives of Policy EN4 ‘Delivering the COP26 Pledge’ due to multiple agendas currently being addressed within the Department for Children, Young People, Education and Skills. However, the Minister has stated that the Department remains committed to achieving the objectives as laid out in the COP26 education pledge.
With regard to soil carbon sequestration, the Panel notes that concern was raised in a submission to the Panel that whilst work had previously been undertaken by Government with Cranfield University to ‘identify and implement additional measures to increase carbon sequestration’, a soil carbon sequestration policy was notably absent in the Carbon Neutral Roadmap. When questioned as to whether this had been unduly omitted from the Roadmap, the Panel was advised by Government that this was reflective of Jersey’s intensive agriculture industry and that the more soil is disturbed due to intense agricultural practice, the less carbon it sequesters.
The Panel identified that there was funding set aside for a PhD student to carry out further work to discover where there are possibilities for increased organic matter in soil, which can in turn lead to carbon sequestration. In light of this, the Panel has recommended that the GoJ should seek to complete and publish the findings of the ongoing soil research which commenced in 2019 with Cranfield University by the end of Q2 2023. The aim of which would be to provide a clearer indication in relation to Jersey’s soil quality and potential for carbon sequestration and with a view to this providing a suitable evidence base to inform whether soil carbon sequestration should be considered an advantageous policy direction for inclusion in the next delivery phase of the Carbon Neutral Roadmap.
The Panel's key concerns
In addition to the Panel's key concern regarding the governance and oversight for the longer-term delivery of the Roadmap, our review has also highlighted the following key overarching concerns which have arisen from the Panel’s analysis of the proposed carbon reduction policies for the first delivery phase of the Roadmap.
Skills and training: The majority of the carbon reduction policies namely transport, heating, cooling and cooking policies will require on-Island skills and a suitably trained workforce to facilitate these workstreams and it is uncertain whether this skills gap will be addressed in a timely manner for the Roadmap’s policies to succeed.
Just Transition: Achieving a ‘Just Transition’ is a significant concern for many members of the public and will be a significant challenge for the Government to address and ensure that Islanders are not unfairly or disproportionately impacted because of the carbon reduction policies imposed on them.
Sequestration: Considering the potential for carbon drawdown in Jersey’s soil as well as the additional benefits from proper soil management including clean water, biodiversity, food security, nutrition and the natural environment, the Panel raises concern that this has not been included within the workstream for policy EN5 and would encourage further research be developed in this area.
Capacity and resourcing: Given the importance of each of the carbon reduction policies within the first delivery phase of the Carbon Neutral Roadmap to initiate the journey to net zero and considering their dependency on one another to meet the intended goals of the Roadmap, the Panel raises concern regarding available capacity and resourcing within all the Government departments to ensure the efficient delivery of the workstream. Particularly, as the delivery of the first phase is due to commence immediately, on approval of P.74/2022 in April 2022. Therefore, there is an urgency to ensure that the available capacity and resourcing can meet the requirements of the workstream with immediate effect.
Scrutiny of Government's response to the Citizens' Assembly Recommendations
In consideration of the Panel’s principal task to scrutinise the Government’s response to the recommendations made by the Citizens’ Assembly on Climate Change, overall, the Panel is satisfied with how the Citizens’ Assembly recommendations have been fed into the policy development process.
Moreover, where recommendations have been rejected or will be considered for the medium to longer-term development of the policies, the Panel is satisfied with how the Government has demonstrated any future alignment, or the reasons for the rejection of the recommendations.
The Panel notes that, as reflected in the lodged version of the Carbon Neutral Roadmap, and of the recommendations applicable to Government: 80 have been accepted, 25 are under consideration in the medium-to-long term and only six recommendations have been rejected which, in the main, is to assist with ensuring a ‘Just Transition.’
What happens next?
The Panel has presented its report to the States Assembly and has requested that the Minister for the Environment present a Ministerial Response to the Panel's key findings and recommendations prior to the election period.
The States Assembly are due to debate the Carbon Neutral Roadmap, including the Panel's proposed amendment, at the States' sitting the week commencing 25th April 2022.